Effort and subjective probability.

Abstract
Yaryan and Festinger have reported data which they interpret to indicate that the expenditure of effort in preparation for a possible event increases the belief that the event will occur. The present study explores alternative explanations of Yaryan and Festinger's results. The findings suggest that it was Ss' perceptions of E's behaviors, rather than their own efforts, which led them to increase their subjective probabilities. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved)

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