Indications, Warning, and Crisis Operations

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Abstract
Since the warning process goes beyond the sphere of intelligence to impact on decision-making and action, warning and crisis operations have broader objectives than is often thought. The warning process–whose primary elements are indicators, analysis, decision, and action–is conceptualized in interaction terms and further specified using the notion of actor's decision stairways. An objective of any intelligence and warning system is to determine the opponent's position on the decision stairway toward action. Pearl Harbor and the Yom Kippur War illustrate the interaction of participant's decision stairways. Innovations in communications and conferencing techniques, designed to mitigate organizational problems in warning and crisis operations, are described. Suggestions are offered for improved use of probability statements by analysts.

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