Hindsight: Thinking Backward

Abstract
Is hindsight better than foresight or just different. The formal difference between the two tasks is the hindsightful judge's possession of outcome knowledge, telling him how things turned out. In the studies reported, outcome knowledge is found to increase the perceived inevitability of the outcome reported. Judges, however, appear largely unaware of the changes in their perceptions due to outcome knowledge, and thus believe that they had insights which actually resulted from outcome knowledge. Failure to appreciate the effects of outcome knowledge can seriously prejudice the evaluation of decisions made in the past and limit what is learned from experience.

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