MEDIA TONE AND PUBLIC OPINION: A LONGITUDINAL STUDY OF MEDIA COVERAGE AND PUBLIC OPINION ON CHANCELLOR KOHL

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Abstract
This study investigates the relationship between media coverage of Helmut Kohl in seven leading German print media and the opinions of the German general public about the politician between 1975 and 1984. For the content analysis evaluative assessments about Helmut Kohl on six different dimensions of characteristics were coded. The analysis of public opinion is based on 72 representative surveys in which respondents expressed their evaluations of the politician. The two time series were compared by means of cross-lagged correlations. The whole period was first examined with aggregations of three-months-intervals; then closer attention was paid to the time period since Helmut Kohl took office as chancellor on the basis of monthly intervals. In both cases, the results show that evaluation shifts in the media precede similar evaluation shifts in public opinion with a time lag of about three to six months for the whole period of investigation, and a somewhat shorter time lag for the time of his chancellorship. Evaluation shifts in the political magazines Der Spiegel and Stern were more closely related to public opinion than evaluation shifts in the national dailies.

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