Evaluating Correctional Programs

Abstract
In this article, we develop a model of the length of time until recidivism, and estimate it on a sample of releasees from the North Carolina prison system. Evidence of the model's predictive accuracy is presented. The model is then used to evaluate a correctional program by comparing the actual time until recidivism of program participants to that predicted by the model. The program appears to be effective only in the very short run.

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