Using ghost lineages to identify diversification events in the fossil record

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Abstract
Observed rises in taxic diversity could reflect bias of the fossil record or a genuine diversification. Here we outline a new method that attempts to differentiate between these two possible explanations. The method is based on the calculations of average ghost lineage duration through successive intervals of time. Biases due to variation in preservational conditions affect taxa independently from their position in the tree of life. A genuine radiation event will affect some parts of the tree of life more than others. During periods of rapid diversification, there will be a high proportion of new taxa showing short ghost lineages and therefore the average ghost lineage duration will drop as diversity rises, allowing us to distinguish such events from preservational bias during which ghost lineage duration remains unchanged. We test the method on Aptian-Maastrichtian (Cretaceous) ray-finned fish diversity. The result shows that a peak of diversity in the Cenomanian is associated with a drop in average ghost lineage duration, indicating that a genuine biological radiation occurred at that time.