The area under the infectives trajectory of the general stochastic epidemic
- 1 June 1972
- journal article
- Published by Cambridge University Press (CUP) in Journal of Applied Probability
- Vol. 9 (2) , 414-417
- https://doi.org/10.2307/3212809
Abstract
If the cost of an epidemic is a linear function of the number of persons infected at any time, the total cost depends upon the area under the infectives trajectory. This note uses a combinatorial argument to show that for the general stochastic epidemic the distribution of this area may be expressed in terms of the probabilities of the ultimate size of the epidemic.Keywords
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