Estimation of Rate of Incidence of ATL Among ATLV (HTLV-I) Carriers in Kyushu, Japan

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Abstract
From the mortality statistics on malignant lymphomas in Japan and nationwide studies on T- and B-cell malignancies, the number of deaths from adult T-cell leukemia/lymphoma (ATL) in adults older than 20 years in the Kyushu district was estimated at 339 or more per year in 1978–82. The incidence for ATL per 100,000 was estimated at 3.5 for adults and 5.7 for persons over 40 years of age in the Kyushu district. From the information from a nationwide study on the distribution of ATL virus (ATLV) carriers among volunteer blood donors, the number of ATLV-carriers in adults older than 20 years in Kyushu was calculated at 561,000 (310,000–793,000 at 95% confidence limit) in recent years. The incidence of ATL per 1,000 ATLV carriers in Kyushu was calculated at 0.60 (0.43–1.09) for adults, and 0.75 (0.55–1.18) for those over 40 years of age which was very close to the independently calculated figure of 0.84 (0.75–0.95) in the Goto Islands (the most typical ATL-endemic area). From these results, it was suggested that one case of ATL developed per year among 1,700 (900–2,300) ATLV-carrier adults and among 1,300 (800–1,800) ATLV carriers older than 40 years in Kyushu in recent years.

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