Optimal Administration of Dual Screening Tests for Detecting a Characteristic with Special Reference to Low Prevalence Diseases

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Abstract
We consider the problem of deciding optimally whether a characteristic exists based on one or two screening tests. We discuss the relative merits of giving either one or two tests, including the order in which they might be given, as well as their costs. Operating in the Bayesian mode, we derive posterior distributions for the accuracies of the tests and the prevalence of the characteristic. Applications to detecting rare conditions, such as the AIDS virus, are discussed.

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