Distribution‐free methods for estimating flood and streamflow exceedance probabilities by correlation
- 1 December 1980
- journal article
- Published by American Geophysical Union (AGU) in Water Resources Research
- Vol. 16 (6) , 1121-1127
- https://doi.org/10.1029/wr016i006p01121
Abstract
This paper deals with the problem in which it is necessary to infer the probabilistic characteristics of a streamflow variableyt(e.g., annual peak discharge, or accumulated streamflow during some time interval) given a correlated longer recordxt(e.g., annual peak discharge at a gaging site with longer record; rainfall during the same time interval). In particular, it is necessary to estimate probabilities of the formP(y≥y0) for givenY0. Conventional methods make assumptions about the joint probability distribution ofxtandyt; the methods developed in this paper require no such assumption, being distribution free. Estimates ofP(y≥Y0) are also obtained by Bayesian methods.Keywords
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