Model Validation via Uncertainty Propagation and Data Transformations

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Abstract
Model validation has become a primary means to evaluate accuracy and reliability of computational simulations in engineering design. Because of uncertainties involved in modeling, manufacturing processes, and measurement systems, the assessment of the validity of a modeling approach must be conducted based on stochastic measurements to provide designers with confidence in using a model. A generic model validation methodology via uncertainty propagation and data transformations is presented. The approach reduces the number of physical tests at each design setting to one by shifting the evaluation effort to uncertainty propagation of the computational model. Re- sponse surface methodology is used to create metamodels as less costly approximations of simulation models for the uncertainty propagation. Methods for validating models with both normal and nonnormal response distributions are proposed. The methodology is illustrated with the examination of the validity of two finite element analysis models for predicting springback angles in a sample flanging process.

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