CIRRHOSIS OF THE LIVER FOLLOWING VIRAL HEPATITIS, A TWENTY-YEAR MORTALITY FOLLOW-UP1

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Abstract
Beebe, G. W. and A. H. Simon (Follow-up Agency, National Research Council, 2101 Constitution Avenue, Washington, D. C. 20418). Cirrhosis of the liver following viral hepatitis, a twenty-year mortality follow-up. Amer. J. Epid., 1970, 92: 279–286.—A 20-year mortality study of 5, 393 Army enlisted men with viral hepatitis in World War II, and of 2, 696 comparable controls, provides no evidence of increased risk of cirrhosis of the liver. The survey was large enough to have an 85% chance of detecting an increase in risk to three times normal. A one-sided 99% confidence interval on the result strongly suggests that young men with viral hepatitis have less than twice the normal risk of cirrhosis during the next 20 years. National vital statistics yield an estimated 2.4 deaths from cirrhosis per 1, 000 men of comparable age for the period 1946–1965. Among controls, deaths from all liver diseases numbered nine, or 3.5 per 1,000; for the 1,969 men with SH there were three deaths, or 1.5 per 1,000; and for the 3,279 men with IH there were 11 deaths, or 3.4 per 1,000.

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