Effects of warm sea–surface temperature anomalies on the blue petrel at the Kerguelen Islands

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Abstract
Several long–term studies on Southern Ocean seabirds and seals have suggested a possible link between major declines in breeding performance and El Niño Southern Oscillation events. We report that the breeding performances and body condition of the blue petrel (Halobaena carulea) on the Kerguelen Islands is depressed by episodic, warm sea–surface temperatures (SSTs) in the winter before breeding. Lagged cross correlations between SSTs in the Kerguelen sector and the Southern Oscillation Index indicate that warm SSTs were found south of Kerguelen Islands within a year of, and between 4.2 and 5.4 years after, an El Niño event took place. These results can be discussed with respect to the recently described Antarctic Circumpolar Wave that drives climatic anomalies eastward around the Southern Ocean.