Abstract
Anticipated global warming during the next century will produce many environmental changes, including widespread thawing of permafrost in the northern hemisphere. A nonstationary model of heat and water transport in a stratified medium was used in conjunction with results from a climate-change model to estimate the severity of permafrost degradation. Results suggest that the area of continuous permafrost in the USSR may be reduced by 15 to 20% over a 50-year period.