A probabilistic approach to wear prediction

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Abstract
An attempt is made to offer a model applicable to adhesive wear prediction. The essence of the approach is the proposal that the rate of wear can be predicted in probabilistic terms. Therefore, the estimation of the probability of wear, which can be regarded as synonymous with the probability of asperity contact, precedes the calculation of the wear rate. Further, recognising the fact that wear takes place within the actual area of contact, it is argued that this area consists of plastic and elastic contacts between asperities which, in turn, have different shear strengths and contribute to the wear process differently. An assumption that only two levels of adhesion occur during asperity interactions combined with the statistical properties of rough surfaces leads to a model of adhesive wear which is a better approximation of the real process than earlier models.

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