Prediction of Outcome in Acute Renal Failure

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Abstract
In an attempt to predict outcome in acute renal failure (ARF) we have utilized multiple logistic regression to analyze clinical data from 151 patients with ARF seen over a 15-month period. Recovery of renal function occurred in 60% of patients with a 58% survival. Our analysis demonstrated sepsis, respiratory failure, and oliguria to be the major predictors of nonrecovery of renal function. A logistic equation was generated for prediction of outcome and was validated in a second independent group of patients with ARF. Prediction of outcome could be achieved with a sensitivity of 75% and a specificity of 80%. Maximum sensitivity (100%) was associated with a 17% specificity, while maximum specificity (98%) yielded a sensitivity of 20%.

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