The Economics of Normalcy

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Abstract
For reasons that were exogenous or predetermined, the ex ante propensity to invest out of income in the United States declined in the 1920s while the ex ante propensity to save increased. The consequent ex ante surplus available for saving drove up asset prices. Higher asset prices produced a substantial wealth effect on consumption, converting ex ante saving into ex post consumption. Output was consequently maintained at high employment. Eventually asset markets reacted to excessive price levels. Then the momentum of falling asset prices released and reinforced the weight of “surplus” saving.

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