Assessing the Onset of Relief of a Treatment for Migraine

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Abstract
It is common for clinical trials designed to compare treatments for migraine to incorporate a component for estimating onset. Our objective is to describe a stopwatch method for collecting data on time to meaningful relief and a conceptual framework for describing and analysing the results. The survival distribution of onset is modelled in two parts: the probability that onset does not occur, and the survival distribution conditional on its occurrence. Using data from a clinical trial comparing an active treatment and placebo, we illustrate the method and find that the distributions of onset among those with onset do not differ, but the probabilities that onset occurs are substantially different. We illustrate how the model can be used to help determine how long patients without onset should wait before further intervention, how patients interpret the phrase meaningful relief, and how baseline clinical characteristics affect the onset.

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