Forecasting Future Caries Prevalence from Data in a National Recording System

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Abstract
On the basis of annual mean DMFS for the Danish child population over the period 1972–1983, the future mean caries prevalence is predicted by means of regression models fitted to the data. Linear and exponential models are used for each school grade. The linear model gives a better fit to the data than the exponential models. However, the linear model results in what must be considered impossible developments. This demonstrates that the choice of models should be based on theories on etiology and the natural history of the phenomenon studied and not only on the best mathematical fit.

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