Wilderness Use in California: A Quantitative Analysis

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Abstract
The rapid, increase in wilderness use in California and the public debate on the allocation of federal lands to wilderness status underscores the need for research in this field. Regression models were used to analyze factors influencing wilderness use in 21 Forest Service areas and three National Parks during the 1968–1971 period. Numerous potential factors were investigated such as income levels, travel costs, population levels, and the availability of leisure time. Others, relating primarily to individual areas, were number of lakes, total length of streams, magnitude of trail systems, size and elevation of areas, steepness of terrain, weather conditions, and factors affecting accessibility. Regression models were estimated using combined cross-section and time series data. Models were constructed for three geographical groupings of areas, for several two-year time spans, and for Forest Service areas as well as for all years and areas combined. Factors which appeared to be of major importance in the latter models were size and elevation of areas, travel time from metropolitan areas, number of lakes or entry points, and population within 100 miles. Models for two geographical groupings (Northern and Central regions) gave similar results. The Southern regional model was somewhat different and emphasized the importance of trails, streams, and population levels in close proximity to an area. Models estimated using two-year segments of the data series revealed no evidence of structural change over time.

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