Voter Choice in the 1974 Congressional Elections

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Abstract
This article examines the impact of voter reactions to Watergate and the 1973-1974 reces sion, as well as the voters' evaluations of presidential performance and of the presence or absence of an incumbent on individual vote choice in the 1974 House of Representatives elections. The influence of these variables is considered within the context of an attitudinal model of voter choice, using path analysis of responses by voters included in the 1974 University of Michigan National Election Study. Party identification and candidate related variables (incumbency and candidate name familiarity) contribute more to the explanation of vote choice than do voter evaluations of Watergate, the recession, and presidential performance. The total set of explanatory variables are able to account for 43% of the variance in vote choice.