The Capital Gains and Losses on U.S. Government Debt: 1942-1987

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Abstract
The capital gains and losses on U.S. Treasury securities are calculated and reported on a quarterly basis over the 1942-1987 period. These data are then used to calculate an adjusted measure of the federal budget deficit for the years 1975-1987. Whereas the rising trend in interest rates over the 1975-1981 period substantially reduced the federal deficit, this study shows that the reversal of that trend over the 1981-1986 period contributed even more greatly to an increase in the deficit. Also calculated and reported are holding-period rates of return on overall marketable Treasury debt, providing a contrast to existing interest rate series.

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