A revolução energética do século XXI

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Abstract
He beginning of the century coincides with the beginning of yet another energetic revolution stirred up by the raise in oil prices and conditioned to three factors: • The proximity of "oil peak," that some geologists are announcing for the next decade, and that is translated by the unevenness between the volume of its production and that of the recently discovered reserves. According to Colin J.Campbell (2006), from 1981 on the world began to use more oil than it discovered. In 2005, for every five barrels consumed, only one was found,1 thence the tendency of raising prices of the black gold. As I am writing this article, the barrel of oil is sold between US$ 50 and 60, having reached US$ 75 already. Many observers forecast that in the next few years it might reach US$ 100 or more. The competitiveness level of Brazilian sugar cane ethanol that benefited from thirty years of improvement and from the drop in price of its production is at US$ 35 per barrel of oil, while biodiesel becomes competitive in the US$ 50 to US$ 60 range, with great possibilities of further cost reduction in the future. • The late realization that, regardless of the economic costs, the international community must promote with maximum urgency an obstinate and rigorous policy to reduce the consumption of fossil energy sources to avoid harmful and irreversible climatic changes, caused by the excessive emission of greenhouse effect gases. The Kyoto Protocol is an extremely timid and totally insufficient step in that direction. According to the scientists, there should be at least a 50% cut in emissions by 2050, and by a factor of four in the industrialized countries.2 Among the followers of "deep ecology", some people believe that the point of no return has already been surpassed, and that the inadequate use of technology has hopelessly harmed the Earth's self-regulation of the system. Instead of claiming for sustainable development, we shall, at best, discuss the sustainable withdrawal, with a drastic limitation of both consumption levels and world population.3

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