Recreation Projection Based on Demand Analysis

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Abstract
The first method of projection extends the Hotelling-Clawson model to include population and income as demand shifters. Price, population, and income elasticities of demand for visits to national parks are estimated, leading to projections of a 225-percent increase in visits by 1980. Partly because this method does not consider the distribution of income, a second method is developed based on visitation rates by distance-income-vacation classes. To project future population by income classes, maximum-likelihood estimators are developed of the mean and variance of the log-normal component of a state's income distribution. The second method is applied to an area recreation complex in western North Carolina and to recreation packages within the area. It suggests a more rapid increase in visits than the first method, due to projected rise in the proportion of the population in upper-income-vacation classes, which have high visitation rates.

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