PROSPECTIVE EVALUATION OF A RISK SCORING SYSTEM FOR PREDICTING PRETERM DELIVERY IN BLACK INNER-CITY WOMEN

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  • 1 January 1987
    • journal article
    • research article
    • Vol. 69  (1) , 61-66
Abstract
Nine percent of United States births are preterm. The ability to efficiently identify women destined to deliver before term would enable obstetricians to initiate early intervention. The Papiernik-Creasy risk scoring system is being extensively applied for this purpose, without prospective validation in this country. We evaluated prospectively its ability to predict high risk women in a black inner city population, when applied once early in pregnancy. The system, based on social, past medical, and current pregnancy problems, failed to identify at-risk patients. Adjusting the score cut/off and reweighting factors with discriminate analysis did not improve the predictive value. Analysis of an additional 60 social, demographic, and medical factors failed to produce a useful alternative risk assessment tool. We suggested that risk scoring systems such as these may not be helpful in socioeconomically at-risk populations.