Factors That Predict the Bleeding Risk of Cerebral Arteriovenous Malformations

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Abstract
Background and Purpose Arteriovenous malformations (AVMs) have an overall 2% to 4% annual risk of hemorrhage. The purpose of this study was to determine whether specific clinical and radiographic factors predispose AVMs to bleed and to predict the bleeding risk for individual AVM patients. Methods We reviewed the clinical histories and cerebral angiograms of 315 AVM patients who underwent stereotactic radiosurgery at our center. One half of the patient data (analysis cohort) was used to determine risk factors for bleeding and to construct AVM hemorrhage risk groups. These risk groups were then tested with the second half of the patient data (test cohort). Results The mean AVM volume was 4.0±3.4 mL (approximate maximum diameter of 2 cm). One hundred ninety-six initial hemorrhages occurred in 10 348 patient-years for an annual initial bleed rate of 1.89%; 44 of these 196 patients had a repeat bleed in 591 patient-years for an annual rebleed rate of 7.45%. The overall crude annual hemorrhage rate was 2.40%. ...