Predictability of catastrophic events: material rupture, earthquakes, turbulence, financial crashes and human birth

Preprint

9 July 2001

preprint
Published by arXiv in arXiv

https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.cond-mat/0107173

Abstract

We propose that catastrophic events are "outliers" with statistically different properties than the rest of the population and result from mechanisms involving amplifying critical cascades. Applications and the potential for prediction are discussed in relation to the rupture of composite materials, great earthquakes, turbulence and abrupt changes of weather regimes, financial crashes and human parturition (birth).

Keywords

CATASTROPHIC EVENTS
COMPOSITE MATERIALS
EARTHQUAKES
FINANCIAL CRASHES
HUMAN
MATERIAL RUPTURE
OUTLIERS
PREDICTABILITY
RUPTURE
TURBULENCE

All Related Versions

Version 1, 2001-07-09, ArXiv
Published version: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 99 (suppl_1), 2522.

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