A Comparison of Two Elicitation Methods for a Prior Distribution for a Binomial Parameter

1 June 1988

journal article
Published by Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS) in Management Science

Vol. 34 (6) , 784-790
https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.34.6.784

Abstract

This paper compares two methods of elicitation for the hyperparameters of the conjugate beta distribution for a binomial sampling model. The PM (posterior mode) method of Chaloner and Duncan appears to be more sensitive to elicitation errors than does a new method proposed here. This new method uses the device of imaginary results, due to I. J. Good (Good, I. J. 1967. A Bayesian significance test for multinomial distributions. JRSSB 29 399–431 (with discussion).). An explicit model for elicitation errors is used in a simulation.

Keywords

ELICITATION METHOD
PRIOR DISTRIBUTION
BINOMIAL PARAMETER
MULTINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
BETA DISTRIBUTION
ELICITATION

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