Are Land Use Patterns Predictable?

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Abstract
To provide a background for the other articles in this issue the author summarizes some of the studies that have identified key variables affecting urban growth patterns. The most consistent factor related to land use distribution is sheer distance, and especially distance from the CBD. In Philadelphia and Toronto urban density patterns have followed almost identical patterns over the past half-century, giving support to the “crest of the wave” theory of urban growth. Both residential and employment densities exhibit a consistently regular pattern that follows concentric rings out from the CBD. The observations reveal strong regularities of metropolitan land use patterns and hence raise the intriguing question posed in the title of this article.

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