On estimating non‐linear response of fungal development under fluctuating temperatures

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Abstract
Published research concerning disease development often shows that the response of fungal development to temperature is non‐linear. Unfortunately, this non‐linear response has often been ignored when predicting fungal development under varying temperatures using non‐linear models and when deriving fungal development models from data collected under fluctuating temperatures. In this paper, the magnitude of non‐linear effects on fungal development is shown to depend on the types of non‐linear models and on the extent of temperature fluctuations. A method is described, which has been used in other disciplines to fit non‐linear models directly to varying temperatures. Hypothetical data were generated to demonstrate the usefulness of this method. With the underlying rate equation being non‐linear, models derived from average temperatures underestimate the rates at intermediate temperatures; the greater the temperature fluctuation, the greater this underestimation.

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