Predicting Winter Flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus) Catches by Time Series Analysis

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Abstract
Long-term changes in catches of winter flounder (Pseudopleuronectes americanus) were compared at five locations within Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island, USA and in three areas directly offshore. In the lower Bay, relative abundance decreased 86% during warming in the early 1970's, recovered briefly, and then declined to an all-time low in 1986. Time-series analysis successfully predicted a recovery in 1987. Year ahead predictions, based on annual models, had a maximum error of 14% (1986); monthly forecasts explained 62–72% of catch variation during the entire investigation; cumulative monthly error (forecast compared with actual over an annual cycle) was 11% in the Bay and 21% offshore. Commercial offshore catch and the fish retained on power plant intake screens in two major rivers showed the same 11-yr pattern of population fall and recovery detected in the lower Bay. Coherent behavior was also demonstrated by the similarity of random processes which generated the time-series data. Thus a single time-series model for southern New England winter flounder seems feasible.

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