Baseline Setting Using Optimising Energy Models

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Abstract
Feasible approaches to baseline setting represent an indispensable requirement for the evaluation of project-based flexible instruments. However, until now methodological differences and drawbacks have hampered fair crediting as well as the comparability of projects. In this paper different methodologies for baseline setting are discussed for a set of relevant criteria. Project-specific and aggregate approaches for baseline setting are analysed as to their pros and cons. On the basis of this discussion, an approach based on the optimising energy model PERSEUS is presented. By using a detailed representation of specific power plants the model determines the “cost-optimal” structure of the future energy system of a country; the sector specific baseline is given by a strategy without greenhouse gas emission reduction targets. In order to avoid the rather large complexity and cost of this model approach for baseline setting, a more simplified methodology is proposed.

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