Relationships between interannual variability of glacier mass balance and climate

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Abstract
The interannual variability of glacier mass balance is expressed by the standard deviation of net balance, which varies from about ±0.1 to ±1.4 m a−1 for a sample of 115 glaciers with at least 5 years of record. The standard deviation of net balance is strongly correlated with the mass-balance amplitude (half the difference between winter and summer balances) for 60 glaciers, so the amplitude can be estimated from net balance standard deviation for the other 55 glaciers where winter and summer balances are unavailable. The observed and calculated mass-balance amplitudes for the 115 glaciers show contrasts between the Arctic and lower latitudes, and between maritime and continental regions. The interannual variability of mass balance means that balances must be measured for at least a few years to determine a statistically reliable mean balance for any glacier. The net balance of the Greenland ice sheet is still not accurately known, but its standard deviation is here estimated to be about ±0.24 m a−1, in agreement with other Arctic glaciers. Mass-balance variability of this magnitude implies that the ice sheet can thicken or thin by several metres over 20–30 years without giving statistically significant evidence of non-zero balance under present climate.