Evaluating the relative accuracy and significance of net migration estimates

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Abstract
Summary: This paper presents the elements of a theory for evaluating the quality of a set of net migration estimates. The total error in a net migration estimate is decomposed into total bias and total variation. The bias is further decomposed into three bias elements—selection bias, estimator bias, and measurement bias. Tables of bounds for measurement and estimator biases in the vital statistics and the forward survival ratio estimates of net intercensal migration are presented. Both net migration levels and net migration ratios are treated, and provision is made for both life table and census survival ratio estimates. Some of the statistical tables are applied illustratively to net migration data for Canadian counties or census divisions during the 1951–61 decade. Tests of significance and confidence intervals are indicated for net migration estimates, and the basic technical notes are presented in appendices.

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