SIMULATION MODEL OF EUROPEAN RED MITE POPULATION DYNAMICS DEVELOPED FOR A MINI-COMPUTER

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Abstract
A simulation model is described for the population dynamics of the European red mite, Panonychus ulmi (Koch). The model incorporates the following features: (a) development rate is dependent on effective daily temperature; (b) division of each population component into distinct daily age classes; (c) emergence of individuals from each population component is dependent on a log-normal probability distribution, and a temperature related development vector to accumulate a measure of the temperature effect on development. Validation runs on a mini-computer in 1976 and 1977 adequately described actual population curves determined from daily orchard sampling. A model of this type which can be used with small computers should prove useful in investigating the main factors affecting the population dynamics, and control strategies for this and other pests.