Statistical Assessment of Huntsman's 3-y Salmon-Rainfall Correlation, and Other Potential Correlations, in the Miramichi Fishery, New Brunswick

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Abstract
In the mid 1930s, A.G. Huntsman hypothesized that in the Miramichi River, New Brunswick, predation by kingfishers and American mergansers upon Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) parr became especially severe in years of low July–August rainfall, these years being reflected 3 y later by reduced commercial catches. Huntsman attempted to demonstrate this predation effect with visual comparisons of aligned graphs of July–August rainfall for the city of Chatham, N.B., and commercial landings of 2½-sea-y salmon in Northhumberland County at the mouth of the Miramichi River. With detrended fishery data, and rainfall data augmented by additional weather stations, we confirmed that Huntsman's 3 y alignment provides the strongest and most significant correlation available in these data. We found that Huntsman's 2-mo correlation is strengthened by inclusion of September rainfall, and is strongest as a 5-mo May-to-September correlation. In the discussion, we distinguish between Huntsman's 3-y correlation and the b...