Fertility decline and female chances of marriage in Malaya

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Abstract
A feature of the demographic pattern of post-World War II Malaya has been its high rate of natural growth, which reached 31/2 per cent per annum in the mid-1950s. However, the average age at marriage of the female population has been rising for most of this period, and since 1956 there has been a considerable and sustained fall in the birth rate. In this paper simple models are developed to show that in a closed population a continuing high rate of population growth is incompatible with a pattern of universal female marriage, monogamy and a culturally imposed age difference of considerable size between spouses. The demonstration provided by the models is then offered as at least a partial explanation of the fertility and female marriage trends in contemporary Malaya. Discrepancies between the population of Malaya and the models have to be taken into account. A pattern of polygamous and unstable marriage does exist amongst the Malaysians and, to a much lesser extent, in the Chinese community. Furthermore, recent years have witnessed the passing of the large surplus of single males built up in the Chinese sector of the population during the years oflarge scale immigration. Such a transition is well under way in the Indian community too. It is suggested that a substantial average age gap between spouses may be an aspect of many contemporary societies which reacts against the persistence of extremely high rates of natural increase. Even where demographic pressures in the ‘marriage market’ act towards a lessening of this gap, there is a cultural lag, during which period many females are forced to marry late or not at all. Most of the study was made on a pan-Malayan basis (i.e. combining the Federation of Malaya and the State of Singapore) to achieve comparability with earlier censuses and as a recognition that with unrestricted migration between these areas they still form a single demographic unit. The terms Malaya and Malayans will be used when referring to this area or its inhabitants. The so-called major races of the country are Malaysians, Chinese and Indians. The first will be used in accordance with the census definition to cover the indigenous inhabitants of Malaya or the Malay Archipelago (Indonesia, British Borneo and the Philippines). As most of these people are either indigenous or have been in Malays for some generations they are usually called Malays (except for the aborigines). However, the all-embracing census term will be used here. Indians, in conformity with most local usage, will be used for the groups classified as Indians and Pakistanis at the 1957 censuses of the Federation of Malaya and Singapore. The group was very small.

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