Microelectronics: End of the beginning or beginning of the end?

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Abstract
The startling rate of change which microelectronics is producing in world societies has caused organizations to ponder how long this rate of change can endure and at what level of performance it might end. This paper traces the historical development of microelectronic capabilities, how this has fueled ever greater capabilities in electronic systems, which, in turn, created the explosive growth of the microelectronics industry. It is projected that the factors which have produced the growth in microelectronic capabilities will reach maturity within the next decade and electronics may become a low-growth industry within 5 to 10 years following that event unless new revolutionary approaches to microelectronics are developed which bypass foreseen limitations. Some possible paths these revolutionary approaches might take are outlined.

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