USE OF UKCIP02 CLIMATE‐CHANGE SCENARIOS IN FLOOD AND COASTAL DEFENCE

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Abstract
Understanding the uncertainties and risks from climate change is necessary for managing and adapting to those risks. Climate‐change scenarios provide a starting point for assessing climate‐change vulnerability, impact and adaptation. In April 2002, the UK Climate Impacts Programme released new future climate scenarios and was based on modelling at the Hadley Centre, which included temperature, soil moisture, rainfall, runoff, sea‐level rise and wind speed. These data provide a consistent source of information for use in UK climate‐change impact studies.This paper (a) summarises some of the results from this programme, (b) explores their implications, and (c) recommends how these results could be applied in UK flood and coastal defence. The opinions of about twenty selected individuals, who were involved in flood and coastal defence, were collated to assess current practice in the use of climate‐change information, requirements of climate‐change scenarios, and comparison of the content of UKCIP02 with those requirements.

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