Probability and Criminalistics

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Abstract
Probabilistic methods in the evaluation of legal evidence have not yet been employed to any large degree and there is a dearth of potentially useful probabilities that might be estimated from empirical data. The role which mathematical probability can and does play in the court room is illustrated with cases involving combinations of circumstances, forgery, criminal identification, establishment of nonpaternity, and the use of coded messages. ‘Beyond a mathematical doubt’ should be more convincing than ‘beyond a reasonable doubt.’ “… and where a Mathematical Reasoning can be had, it is as great Folly to make use of any other, as to grope for a Thing in the Dark, when you have a Candle standing by you. I believe the Calculation of the Quantity of Probability might be improved to a very useful and pleasant Speculation, and applied to a great many Events which are accidental, besides those of Games; only these Cases would be infinitely more confused, as depending on Chances which the most Part of Men are ignorant of.” John Arbuthnot, Of the Laws of Chance (1692)

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