Accuracy of Ozone Air Quality Models

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Abstract
Photochemical grid model performance evaluation studies have been undertaken over the last decade as an integral part of ozone air pollution model development and application efforts and in support of model sensitivity analysis, monitoring program design, and applied research. These studies, sponsored by federal and state agencies, universities, and consulting firms, represent a significant body of information. A comprehensive review of past Eulerian model evaluation studies indicates that the overall accuracy of hourly averaged ozone predictions, paired in time and space, is of the order of 35–40%. However, considering the model's ability to reproduce the maximum observed concentration, independent of time or space pairing, overall prediction accuracies of 10–20% are found. For single‐day ozone simulations, the overall negative bias is −10%.