A Spectral Analysis of Building Cycles in Britain

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Abstract
In this paper are presented the results of the first phase of a project sponsored by the Economic and Social Research Council to analyse the incidence and causes of building cycles in Britain; five major sectors of construction are covered—private industrial, private commercial, private housing, public housing, and other public building. Spectral analysis, supplemented by turning point analysis, is used to identify the main postwar cycles in each sector, and to measure their relative phasing and severity, distinguishing short 4–5–year ‘demand cycles’ associated with the business cycles from longer ‘supply cycles’ of up to 9-years duration. As the different sectors of building are aggregated, these shorter cycles tend to be smoothed out, revealing a dominant postwar long swing in building activity. This is then compared with previous long swings in the pre-1914 and interwar periods, each of which is associated with successive waves of urbanisation in Britain since the mid-19th century.

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