A Statistical Model for Species Extrapolation Using Categorical Response Data

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Abstract
Predictions of human health risk for single chemicals are often based on animal studies and hence require some sort of adjustment for species differences in toxic susceptibility. In the past, either the animal dose has been divided by an uncertainty factor or the dose has been transformed by a mathematical model into a human equivalent dose. A generalization of the allometric model previously used for carcinogens, the so-called "surface area model, " is investigated here for use with graded severity response data for noncarcinogenic systemic toxicity. Statistical methods for estimating one of the model's parameters, the power of body weight, are proposed and tested on simulated and actual toxicity data. Early results indicate reasonable accuracy if data are available for a large number of dose groups.

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