Seismic Reliability of Special Moment Steel Frames with Welded Connections: II

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Abstract
In this paper—the second of two companion papers addressing damage to buildings with welded special moment frames—the role of inherent randomness and modeling uncertainty on building performance is considered in detail using the nonlinear dynamic analysis procedure from the first paper as an assessment tool. An efficient statistical sampling plan is utilized to yield a probabilistic description of building performance. With this approach, the surveyed damage falls within the scatter of damage predicted by probabilistic modeling. Building fragilities, which depict the limit-state probabilities at increasingly severe levels of ground motion, are illustrated for both undamaged and damaged frames. Median-centered estimates of connection hysteretic behavior are essential to building performance assessment, but the uncertainties in the moment-rotation relations and in other structural parameters are relatively unimportant in comparison to uncertainties in ground motion. Probabilities of nonstructural or minor structural damage in frames of the vintage (early 1980s) considered in this study are substantial, but collapse probabilities are small. The limit-state probabilities are of the same order as those calculated in concurrent independent research, indicating that seismic risk research is converging on tools that will be useful for risk-informed decisions regarding design codes and building rehabilitation.

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