Integrated Model System of Stop Generation and Tour Formation for Analysis of Activity and Travel Patterns

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Abstract
The implementation of a previously reported conceptual structure for the generation of activity and travel patterns by households and individuals through the formulation and estimation of an integrated model system is described. This integrated model system takes account of interdependencies among travel and activity choices and their structural relationships with exogenous variables. A two-stage structure is employed to model short-range decisions, including the generation of daily maintenance activities (stops); the allocation of stops and automobiles to household members; and the individual’s choice of travel patterns, including selection of the number of tours and the assignment of stops to tours. Multinomial and nested logit models are used to examine the travel and activity choices. The empirical analysis demonstrates a statistically significant linkage between the first-stage choices (the number of household maintenance stops and the allocation of stops and autos to household members) and the second-stage choices (the number of tours and the assignment of stops to tours for each individual). The model system has considerable potential for improving current travel-demand forecasting approaches.

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