Verifiable evaporation modeling on the Laurentian Great Lakes

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Abstract
Water or energy balance estimates of Great Lakes evaporation require storage change data, not available in simulations or forecasts, and errors in the components of the balances are summed in the residual, giving large estimation errors. Neither these balance estimates nor evaporation models, which use the aerodynamic equation with mass transfer coefficients developed originally in the Lake Hefner studies, can be verified, since independent estimates of evaporation are not available with sufficient accuracy. However, water surface temperatures can be used to verify energy budgets. The mass transfer coefficient research is combined here with lumped concepts of classical energy conservation and a new superposition heat storage model to provide continuous simulation capability of both water surface temperatures and lake evaporation for use in outlooks and forecasts of lake levels. Calibration matches remotely sensed water surface temperatures for those Great Lakes with observations over the past 20 years. Model sensitivities are analyzed and heat and water budgets are compared.