The Use of Models in Predicting the Consumption of Outdoor Recreation

Publisher Website
Google Scholar
Abstract
This article reviews several types of models for predicting the consumption of outdoor recreation. The types of models are as follows: time series projection, economic, gravity, system theory, and inertia. Wolfe (1972) has noted that the gravity model is unresponsive to the effect that distance itself has upon the perception of distance; that is, use of the gravity model tends to overestimate the number of short trips and underestimate the number of longer ones. By adding an expression to the gravity model which approximates a feedback mechanism, the response to distance is changed as distance itself changes. Although the inertia model is basically a macro-scale tool, the study reports theuse of the model on micro-scale data, namely the distance walked by recreationists to small pieces of open space in an urban center. The results indicate that the inertia model is a vast improvement over the gravity model with little increase in complexity. The suggestion is made that further research using the inertia model on macro-scale data be undertaken.

This publication has 5 references indexed in Scilit: