The Estimation of Caries Prevalence in Small Areas

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Abstract
National surveys have been effective for the estimation of caries prevalence in broad regions of the US. However, it is unclear if data from such surveys can be used to estimate prevalences in small areas such as states or counties because of small sample sizes within individual areas. In this study, we applied specialized statistical methods to the estimation of small-area caries measures using data from an oral health survey conducted in the State of Washington. Dental exams to assess caries and the presence of sealants and fluorosis were performed on 2921 third-grade students in 84 public schools selected by a stratified random sample from all 39 counties in the state. Statistical methods for small-area estimation were used to estimate disease and sealant utilization measures for each of the counties. Adjustment was made for covariates measured at the school level, including ethnicity and the proportion of children in the Federally sponsored school lunch program. Substantial variability in disease and sealant utilization between counties was found. The estimated number of decayed and filled surfaces per child was 4.7 (inter-county range, 2.4 to 7.4). The estimated number of surfaces of untreated decay was 1.2 per child overall (range, 0.5 to 3.1). Thirty percent of the children had restorative treatment needs (range, 15 to 54%). The prevalence of sealants on one or more permanent molars was estimated to be 34% (range, 19 to 46%). Overall, only 8% of children showed evidence of fluorosis. The results demonstrate the usefulness of small-area estimation methods for oral health surveys.