Abstract
The 10-16 yr predictive value of body weight for diabetes mellitus was evaluated prospectively in 2 groups of women with initially normal results of glucose tolerance tests. The incidence of diabetes in 602 high-risk (previous transient gestational glucose intolerance) participants was significantly higher for overweight subjects (46.17%) than for those of normal weight (25.6%). In 328 concurrently selected negative control subjects (without previous intolerance), the difference was not significant (4.5% vs. 1.9%). Another definition of diabetes, indicating further deterioration, gave similar results, although high-risk overweight women had disproportionately higher incidence rates. Being overweight had no substantial predictive value for diabetes mellitus during this period unless the additional evidence for a high-risk classification was present. Among such persons at high risk, excess weight also predicted the severity of the subsequent diabetic condition.