NUMERICAL ANALYSIS OF A FOREST TENT CATERPILLAR (LEPIDOPTERA: LASIOCAMPIDAE) OUTBREAK IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA

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Abstract
An outbreak of the forest tent caterpillar began in northern Minnesota in 1964 and ended abruptly in 1972. During 1968–71 when egg densities ranged from 1 to 9 million per acre, caterpillars caused virtually complete tree defoliation in all study plots. As a result, tree stem densities and basal areas were reduced per plot by 41 and 27%, respectively. Tree mortality was more severe on plots having higher water tables. Graphical and components of variance analyses both showed that: (1) variations in annual egg densities were due mostly to variations in survival during the egg to 30-day larval stage (SI) and secondly to variations in survival during the 30-day larval to adult stage (S2), (2) S2 tended to change in the opposite direction from S1, (3) the net result was a tendency to produce a constant amount of eggs per unit area. Variations in S1 were due primarily to pharate larval mortality and mortality of larvae 2–3 weeks after hatch while variations in S2 were due mainly to unmeasured mortality factors such as starvation, disease, dispersal, etc. Survival during the egg stage (SE) and fecundity (F) varied significantly by years, but not by plots and both were apparently related to weather conditions. Plots of two simultaneous equations were presented to demonstrate the nature of population change in relation to the densities of eggs and 30-day larvae per acre.